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Merqutio
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Posted: Sun Dec 21st, 2008 08:11 pm |
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SAN FRANCISCO--If you're one of the many people who doubt there's intelligent life anywhere else in the universe, or even someone who thinks there is but that it will take centuries to find it, get ready to be surprised.
"We'll find E.T. within two dozen years," senior SETI astronomer Seth Shostak said Tuesday night at an event held at Yahoo's Brickhouse here.
That is, he said, if the assumptions of many researchers within the SETI Institute are correct, assumptions that are based on a collision of computing power under Moore's Law and the distance into space we can look with new instruments that will be available to researchers in the years to come.
Shostak's talk was largely theoretical and was a quick recap of the history of the SETI project. He explained that it had originally been a NASA project, but that it had been canceled in the 1990s by a Nevada senator unhappy with its lack of success.
Now a private nonprofit based in Mountain View, Calif., SETI is the primary organization looking for intelligent life in outer space.
And Shostak estimated that if the assumptions about computing power and the strength of forthcoming research instruments are correct, we should be able to search as far out as 500 light years into space by 2025, a distance he predicted would be enough--based on scientist Frank Drake's estimate of there being 10,000 civilizations in our galaxy alone capable of creating radio transmitters--to find evidence of life intelligent enough to broadcast its existence.
The main tool for this research, he added, could be the Allen Telescope Array, a project funded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and run by the UC Berkeley radio astronomy lab (RAL) and SETI. The array, made from dozens of small antennas, could become strong enough by 2025, Shostek said, to look deep enough into space to achieve what mankind has been attempting almost as long as we've been curious enough to look into the sky.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-10094740-52.html?tag=mncol
What does the scientific community think of the Drake Equation? Supposedly, the equation calculations the probability of intelligent life occuring in our galaxy. I read over the article they had on the subject on Wikipedia, but I wouldn't exactly call Wiki a scholarly information source. So, what's the Straight Dope on the Drake Equation? Many of it's variables seem purely speculative to me.
Am I the only one that thinks the SETI program is a complete waste of money? What are the chances that an intelligenct species will pick up on our radio broadcasts? Or vice versa? It seems almost like finding a rock buried on a sandy beach. What if they are thousand years behind us technologically? What if they are 1000 years ahead of us on a technological scale? In either case, they probably won't be using radio waves as a form of communication. Even if they had the technology to visit earth or indirectly contact us within a reasonable period of time, isn't it a fallacy so assume they would do so in the first place? Isn't it a fallacy to assume that aliens would even possess the human sentiment of curiosity or exploration?
Last edited on Sun Dec 21st, 2008 08:12 pm by Merqutio
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limana
Supercalafragalistic Limana
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Posted: Sun Dec 21st, 2008 08:51 pm |
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Merqutio wrote: SAN FRANCISCO--If you're one of the many people who doubt there's intelligent life anywhere else in the universe, or even someone who thinks there is but that it will take centuries to find it, get ready to be surprised.
"We'll find E.T. within two dozen years," senior SETI astronomer Seth Shostak said Tuesday night at an event held at Yahoo's Brickhouse here.
That is, he said, if the assumptions of many researchers within the SETI Institute are correct, assumptions that are based on a collision of computing power under Moore's Law and the distance into space we can look with new instruments that will be available to researchers in the years to come.
Shostak's talk was largely theoretical and was a quick recap of the history of the SETI project. He explained that it had originally been a NASA project, but that it had been canceled in the 1990s by a Nevada senator unhappy with its lack of success.
Now a private nonprofit based in Mountain View, Calif., SETI is the primary organization looking for intelligent life in outer space.
And Shostak estimated that if the assumptions about computing power and the strength of forthcoming research instruments are correct, we should be able to search as far out as 500 light years into space by 2025, a distance he predicted would be enough--based on scientist Frank Drake's estimate of there being 10,000 civilizations in our galaxy alone capable of creating radio transmitters--to find evidence of life intelligent enough to broadcast its existence.
The main tool for this research, he added, could be the Allen Telescope Array, a project funded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and run by the UC Berkeley radio astronomy lab (RAL) and SETI. The array, made from dozens of small antennas, could become strong enough by 2025, Shostek said, to look deep enough into space to achieve what mankind has been attempting almost as long as we've been curious enough to look into the sky.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-10094740-52.html?tag=mncol
What does the scientific community think of the Drake Equation? Supposedly, the equation calculations the probability of intelligent life occuring in our galaxy. I read over the article they had on the subject on Wikipedia, but I wouldn't exactly call Wiki a scholarly information source. So, what's the Straight Dope on the Drake Equation? Many of it's variables seem purely speculative to me.
Am I the only one that thinks the SETI program is a complete waste of money? What are the chances that an intelligenct species will pick up on our radio broadcasts? Or vice versa? It seems almost like finding a rock buried on a sandy beach. What if they are thousand years behind us technologically? What if they are 1000 years ahead of us on a technological scale? In either case, they probably won't be using radio waves as a form of communication. Even if they had the technology to visit earth or indirectly contact us within a reasonable period of time, isn't it a fallacy so assume they would do so in the first place? Isn't it a fallacy to assume that aliens would even possess the human sentiment of curiosity or exploration?
I don't know about that. But pssst! I'm an alien!
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"There's only so many times you can say "cesspool of filth and perversion" before the words start losing their sting."
- Hyperbole 3/10/2009
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met
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 12:19 am |
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well, the equation seems right -- just the values plugged into it gotta be totally arbitrary . . . you're right, there's no reason to assume anything at all about any ET intelligent lifeform or civilization
. . . half the stars have orbiting planets? 
besides the distances are so vast, they may be there by the millions- esp in other galaxies, and we might NEVER find them . . .
Last edited on Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 12:21 am by met
____________________
“Hum tum ek kamre meins band ho, aur chaabi kho jaaye”
-from Bobby
o Dir. Raj Kapoor. 1973. R.K. Films Ltd.
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Ronson
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 12:41 am |
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Merqutio wrote: Am I the only one that thinks the SETI program is a complete waste of money?
So long as it isn't taxpayer money, I don't mind.
What are the chances that an intelligenct species will pick up on our radio broadcasts? Or vice versa? It seems almost like finding a rock buried on a sandy beach. What if they are thousand years behind us technologically?
A thousand years behind us technologically and we won't be contacting them any time soon.
What if they are 1000 years ahead of us on a technological scale? In either case, they probably won't be using radio waves as a form of communication.
I disagree. A civilization 1,000 years ahead of us technologically will probably have used radio waves previously and take that into consideration when thinking about other life forms, even if they no longer use them for communication themselves.
Even if they had the technology to visit earth or indirectly contact us within a reasonable period of time, isn't it a fallacy so assume they would do so in the first place? Isn't it a fallacy to assume that aliens would even possess the human sentiment of curiosity or exploration?
If they aren't inquisitive then they probably aren't very advanced. Our technology is the result of curiosity and inquiry.
I think of it this way: Mankind is a relative newcomer to the earth considering how long life has been here. With that in mind, I would also assume that other planets that can support life might not have had the fits and starts that earth has had. And in that case, there should be alien intelligence that is ahead of us. But we find no evidence of them. In a godless universe where life is a "natural" occurence, I would expect some evidence. I see no evidence ... yet.
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AyHyperbole
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 02:24 am |
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Merqutio wrote: Am I the only one that thinks the SETI program is a complete waste of money? What are the chances that an intelligenct species will pick up on our radio broadcasts? Or vice versa? It seems almost like finding a rock buried on a sandy beach. What if they are thousand years behind us technologically? What if they are 1000 years ahead of us on a technological scale? In either case, they probably won't be using radio waves as a form of communication. Even if they had the technology to visit earth or indirectly contact us within a reasonable period of time, isn't it a fallacy so assume they would do so in the first place? Isn't it a fallacy to assume that aliens would even possess the human sentiment of curiosity or exploration?
This whole paragraph almost sounds like you assume that "aliens" are a single group. And that seems like quite a fallacy itself. Probability would suggest that there are probably extraterrestrials 1000 years behind us, 1000 years ahead of us, and right at our own level. Probability would suggest that there are probably extraterrestrials who have no desire to contact other species and extraterrestrials who have a desire so strong it dwarfes our own.
But there's really only one way to find out, and that's to look. I don't mind spending a bit of money on it. (And it kind of has to be taxpayer money, since it's certainly not an investment that any private investor could expect a return on).
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met
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 06:13 am |
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hype, as a math question, i'm NOT sure probability would suggest ANYTHING . . . one place with life in the universe may not suggest more anymore than one case of a universe suggests a multiverse . . .
ONE case of something is just ain't reason to believe there's a bell curve
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“Hum tum ek kamre meins band ho, aur chaabi kho jaaye”
-from Bobby
o Dir. Raj Kapoor. 1973. R.K. Films Ltd.
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AyHyperbole
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 03:01 pm |
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met wrote: hype, as a math question, i'm NOT sure probability would suggest ANYTHING . . . one place with life in the universe may not suggest more anymore than one case of a universe suggests a multiverse . . .
ONE case of something is just ain't reason to believe there's a bell curve
Well, we know of several places with the right conditions to support life as we know it, and we have a rough idea of how many places like that exist, and the answer is: lots, although they're very far away.
Also, some of our recent Martian discoveries lend themselves very strongly to a panspermia theory, which would suggest that we're not alone.
It's not the most solid evidence, but it's a lot easier to make a case for there being extraterrestrial life, and lots of it, than for us being alone in the universe.
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Ice_Monkey
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 03:16 pm |
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Merqutio wrote: SAN FRANCISCO--If you're one of the many people who doubt there's intelligent life anywhere else in the universe, or even someone who thinks there is but that it will take centuries to find it, get ready to be surprised.
"We'll find E.T. within two dozen years," senior SETI astronomer Seth Shostak said Tuesday night at an event held at Yahoo's Brickhouse here.
That is, he said, if the assumptions of many researchers within the SETI Institute are correct, assumptions that are based on a collision of computing power under Moore's Law and the distance into space we can look with new instruments that will be available to researchers in the years to come.
Shostak's talk was largely theoretical and was a quick recap of the history of the SETI project. He explained that it had originally been a NASA project, but that it had been canceled in the 1990s by a Nevada senator unhappy with its lack of success.
Now a private nonprofit based in Mountain View, Calif., SETI is the primary organization looking for intelligent life in outer space.
And Shostak estimated that if the assumptions about computing power and the strength of forthcoming research instruments are correct, we should be able to search as far out as 500 light years into space by 2025, a distance he predicted would be enough--based on scientist Frank Drake's estimate of there being 10,000 civilizations in our galaxy alone capable of creating radio transmitters--to find evidence of life intelligent enough to broadcast its existence.
The main tool for this research, he added, could be the Allen Telescope Array, a project funded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and run by the UC Berkeley radio astronomy lab (RAL) and SETI. The array, made from dozens of small antennas, could become strong enough by 2025, Shostek said, to look deep enough into space to achieve what mankind has been attempting almost as long as we've been curious enough to look into the sky.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-10094740-52.html?tag=mncol
What does the scientific community think of the Drake Equation? Supposedly, the equation calculations the probability of intelligent life occuring in our galaxy. I read over the article they had on the subject on Wikipedia, but I wouldn't exactly call Wiki a scholarly information source. So, what's the Straight Dope on the Drake Equation? Many of it's variables seem purely speculative to me.
Am I the only one that thinks the SETI program is a complete waste of money? What are the chances that an intelligenct species will pick up on our radio broadcasts? Or vice versa? It seems almost like finding a rock buried on a sandy beach. What if they are thousand years behind us technologically? What if they are 1000 years ahead of us on a technological scale? In either case, they probably won't be using radio waves as a form of communication. Even if they had the technology to visit earth or indirectly contact us within a reasonable period of time, isn't it a fallacy so assume they would do so in the first place? Isn't it a fallacy to assume that aliens would even possess the human sentiment of curiosity or exploration?
I've been saying that Seti is a big waste of time, talent, and money for some time now.
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"It's only in the Abrahamic 3 that guessing right is the ultimate virtue and guessing wrong the ultimate sin." ~ W. Beast
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met
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 04:49 pm |
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AyHyperbole wrote: met wrote: hype, as a math question, i'm NOT sure probability would suggest ANYTHING . . . one place with life in the universe may not suggest more anymore than one case of a universe suggests a multiverse . . .
ONE case of something is just ain't reason to believe there's a bell curve
Well, we know of several places with the right conditions to support life as we know it, and we have a rough idea of how many places like that exist, and the answer is: lots, although they're very far away.
Also, some of our recent Martian discoveries lend themselves very strongly to a panspermia theory, which would suggest that we're not alone.
It's not the most solid evidence, but it's a lot easier to make a case for there being extraterrestrial life, and lots of it, than for us being alone in the universe.
well, we DON'T know the odds for or against so many further steps along the way to just ONE intelligent, technological species . . . evolution-isitically, that's been a long and exceeding complex process . . . so I rest on my point
____________________
“Hum tum ek kamre meins band ho, aur chaabi kho jaaye”
-from Bobby
o Dir. Raj Kapoor. 1973. R.K. Films Ltd.
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rvhill
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Posted: Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 06:55 pm |
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first off there are a lot of thing wrong with what he said.
#1 is Moore's Law will end before 2015.
#2 10,000 civilizations in our galaxy alone capable of creating radio transmitters, is so way off it laughable. First it does not take the Fermi paradox in to account. Also for it to even be close to 100s of civilizations the mediocrity principle would have to be right, and that is still a total unknown. The Drake Equation still has simply to many unknown variables, to be used as any kind of measurement. When using the Drake Equation you get between 6 and 10000 civilizations living in the Milky Way galaxy at anyone time.
Fermi paradox is one of the big unknown about the Drake Equation. Civilizations just don't last that long. Lord Woodhouselee stated that a democrat civilizations only live for 200 to 300 years. If you have 10000 worlds that can produces civilizations, and civilizations only last for centuries or even millenniums. You just do not have many living at the some time over the course of billions of years in time.
Carl Sagan Explains the Drake Equation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB_v99FSTYc
Last edited on Mon Dec 22nd, 2008 06:56 pm by rvhill
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