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AyHyperbole
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| Joined: | Mon Nov 10th, 2008 |
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Posted: Mon Oct 26th, 2009 10:10 pm |
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So, if you haven't caught this story, in New York's 23rd Congressional District, the Republicans nominated a fairly liberal candidate, who looked almost certain to win. But because she was so liberal, Conservative Party member Doug Hoffman decided to run against her - and he's now been endorsed by prominent Republican figures, most notably Sarah Palin.
This is probably going to throw the race to the Democrat (current polling is about 35% Democrat, 30% Republican, 25% Conservative, 10% undecided), but it could have even larger implications for the Republican party.
Essentially, Hoffman, Palin, et. al are saying to the Republicans: Do not run any candidate who's not an arch-conservative, or we will see to it that that candidate is not elected.
It's a mistake. And if this becomes a national strategy, I'm almost certain that it will play out like this - and I've crudely illustrated this below:
1. Take a picture of the political spectrum of the country. Left means "liberal," right means "conservative."
2. Because we're in a winner-take-all system, there will always be two parties, and they'll gravitate toward covering 50% of the spectrum each. Here, Democrat is blue and Republican is red. See that black arrow? That represents the likely ideology of the President. Maybe a little left, maybe a little right, but that's pretty much where you have to campaign from.
3. So, the "conservative party" (in dark red) forms to try to keep the Republicans honest. Obviously, this splits the vote. Now, the Democrats are more or less guaranteed a win, and they can campaign from that arrow all the way over to the left.
4. Obviously, that's unacceptable to Republicans. So you know what they do? They move left. They leave the conservative party with their little chunk over on the right and snatch up some real estate on the left.
The twin results of the Palin/Hoffman strategy: 1. Conservatives are marginalized, and their opinion becomes meaningless; and 2. The entire country is left of where it was before.
It was a terrible idea to begin with...
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Ronson
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Posted: Mon Oct 26th, 2009 10:42 pm |
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Palin isn't all that bright. She apparently feuded with McCain and gave herself the appearance of being a hothead. She resigned as Alaska's governor, which indicates she's a quitter and will abandon her constituents. Now she has become an indirect spoiler, hurting the chances of a Republican because the candidate didn't measure up to her particular brand of conservatism?
Just as Obama seems to have unquestioning fans, it seems to me that Palin does as well. I don't know how they can justify the things that she does.
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WingedBeast
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Posted: Tue Oct 27th, 2009 02:19 am |
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Palin is, at least on the surface, everything her fans loved about George W. Bush and everything just about everybody else hated about him. She uplifts faith as a foundation for nearly all knowledge, including foriegn and domestic policy. She has that kind of faux populism that isn't really populism but just a dislike of people with PHDs and other degrees as "elitists" who think that their education means they know better.
She tells her base that they are the "true Americans" and the "true patriots", and that every other person who is born in America, serves their country, pays taxes here, etc, but are also more liberal in their political ideology aren't really pro-America.
If your desire is for a political cult where you can practice unquestioning and unthinking belief and, in trade, get an ego-feeding, Palin is the kind of leader you want. Not only will take your unquestioning and unthinking faith in this ultra-conservative "True Americanism", she'll really believe it.
For all of this, she isn't the cause of any problem. She's a symptom, at worst a catlyst.
The problem is that, in the wake of George W. Bush, nobody wants to be associated with the Republicans, except the most ardent right wingers. Which makes the remaining moderates the outliers. The moderates, to them, are the ones on the edges, the ones that are threatening the purity of the base's party. So, they want to get rid of them.
Palin and Hoffman are just pleasing their base.
I had high hopes for McCain. Okay, flaming liberal that I am, I didn't want him to win the election. But, ever since he became a candidate for the Republican nomination, I hoped that he would take the high road and win back the soul of the Republican party from the demon of cheap&easy rhetoric. That demon still has the Republican soul.
If this keeps going, what will we have? Well, when the Whig's got rid of their outliers on the issue of slavery, they wound up purifying themselves out of existence.
If I were a Moderate Republican nowadays, I'd consider moving to another party. Especially if I were pro-gay rights, I'd be considering the libertarian party.
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Arthur Two Sheds Gumby
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Posted: Tue Oct 27th, 2009 05:49 am |
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AyHyperbole wrote: The twin results of the Palin/Hoffman strategy: 1. Conservatives are marginalized, and their opinion becomes meaningless; and 2. The entire country is left of where it was before.
I dunno...I can see an upside.
-- A2SG, seems to me Sarah Palin's exactly the candidate the GOP deserves....
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