| Author | Post |
|---|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: |    |
|
Posted: Sat Aug 15th, 2009 11:44 pm |
|
I just said that our 2-month long spree of 98 and 100 degree temperatures was going to kick up some bad storms in the Atlantic.
Here's today's lovely weather, courtesy of a tropical wave:
Attachment: weather1.gif (Downloaded 84 times)
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Sat Aug 15th, 2009 11:45 pm |
|
Here's Thursday's weather, courtesy of Tropical storm Ana, which will be a minor hurricane when it hits here, unless a wind shear chops it up (not likely) and it might go through the Straights and go below us. Hopefully.
Attachment: weather2a.jpg (Downloaded 83 times) Last edited on Sun Aug 16th, 2009 04:22 am by Merlin
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Sat Aug 15th, 2009 11:48 pm |
|
And here's Friday or Saturday's weather, courtesy of Tropical storm Bill, which may end up a strong, nasty hurricane by the time it follows Ana's footprint and comes ashore.
The Bermuda-Azores High, that usually blocks storms this time of year and sends them out into the North Atlantic, is out of place and won't move back in time to stop either of these. There's a slight chance of wind shear but other than that, they both have a straight shot at South Florida.
There's nothing between these two and Miami except open, abnormally hot water.
Just friggin perfect.
Attachment: weather2.jpg (Downloaded 83 times) Last edited on Sat Aug 15th, 2009 11:48 pm by Merlin
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
Tyrrho
Dialogue Follower
| Joined: | Fri Nov 7th, 2008 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 173 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Sun Aug 16th, 2009 01:03 pm |
|
You're so lucky. I don't have any interesting weather to look forward to. 
http://weather.latimes.com/US/CA/Los_Angeles.html?main=1
____________________
This year I resolved not to make any New Year's resolutions.
|
Carol2
Dialogue Facilitator
|
Posted: Tue Aug 18th, 2009 06:41 pm |
|
| Maybe you'll get a surprise earthquake?
____________________
The righteous shall live by his faith (Habakkuk 2:4).
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Tue Aug 18th, 2009 06:45 pm |
|
Well, Claudette already soaked us and then went up and hit North Florida and Alabama as a tropical storm.... Ana fell apart and Bill is a category 2 hurricane, intensifying, but probably moving out into the North Atlantic. Unless it doesn't.
Hurricane forcasting isn't a science; it's an art. There are so many variables that it's not easy to say with any certainty what a storm's going to do. I've gone to bed with a storm heading out to sea and woke up to find out it had made a u-turn overnight and was headed straight for us.
I really don't want a hurricane this year.
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
Carol2
Dialogue Facilitator
|
Posted: Tue Aug 18th, 2009 06:51 pm |
|
| Let's hope they all miss you. My in-laws are begging us to move to South Florida if we should ever have to lose this home, but I really don't think that would be a good idea. I think they should sell their Naples home and go back to living full time in their Chicago home. My FIL HATES cold weather though and can't bear the winters.
____________________
The righteous shall live by his faith (Habakkuk 2:4).
|
Tyrrho
Dialogue Follower
| Joined: | Fri Nov 7th, 2008 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 173 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Wed Aug 19th, 2009 03:47 pm |
|
Carol2 wrote: Maybe you'll get a surprise earthquake?
That's the thing about earthquakes. They're always a surprise. 
____________________
This year I resolved not to make any New Year's resolutions.
|
Carol2
Dialogue Facilitator
|
Posted: Wed Aug 19th, 2009 05:52 pm |
|
| That's the scary thing about earthquakes.
____________________
The righteous shall live by his faith (Habakkuk 2:4).
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Wed Aug 19th, 2009 08:58 pm |
|
| I have family and friends in California and they're more scared of earthquakes than we are of hurricanes, and I don't blame them.
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
AyHyperbole
Dialogue Follower
| Joined: | Mon Nov 10th, 2008 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 2398 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Wed Aug 19th, 2009 09:06 pm |
|
Merlin wrote: Well, Claudette already soaked us and then went up and hit North Florida and Alabama as a tropical storm.... Ana fell apart and Bill is a category 2 hurricane, intensifying, but probably moving out into the North Atlantic. Unless it doesn't.
Hurricane forcasting isn't a science; it's an art. There are so many variables that it's not easy to say with any certainty what a storm's going to do. I've gone to bed with a storm heading out to sea and woke up to find out it had made a u-turn overnight and was headed straight for us.
I really don't want a hurricane this year.
Well, this is an El Nino year - and El Nino usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more Pacific ones.
During the El Nino in 1997, there were only seven named storms, and only one of them became an intense hurricane.
So - knock on wood - a nasty hurricane in Florida this year looks unlikely.
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Wed Aug 19th, 2009 10:40 pm |
|
It's true that sea surface temperatures are well above normal and 2009 has been officially declared an El nino year. That's why we're having higher than normal temperatures and more rainfall than usual.
Do you know that almost all the major homeowner's insurance companies have abandoned Florida, way too many people have no insurance at all or are in a Citizen's Pool and a year's insurance on an $85,000 little bitty house runs around $7,000 a year for the cheapest policy you can get, with a $5,000 PER INCIDENT deductible (and up)?
The, if you do have an incident, they either don't pay or find ways to pay less than the actual damages.
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
Tyrrho
Dialogue Follower
| Joined: | Fri Nov 7th, 2008 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 173 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Thu Aug 20th, 2009 03:16 am |
|
Merlin wrote: I have family and friends in California and they're more scared of earthquakes than we are of hurricanes, and I don't blame them.
I suppose if you're the worrying type, California is not the place to be, because you'd have to be worrying about earthquakes all year round. Contrast this with Florida hurricanes, where you only have to worry occasionally. But the actual amount of time you spend being inconvenienced by earthquakes, and the actual odds of being injured or killed, are very low.
____________________
This year I resolved not to make any New Year's resolutions.
|
Merlin
Dialogue Facilitator
| Joined: | Tue Aug 21st, 2007 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 6387 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Thu Aug 20th, 2009 04:42 am |
|
I think the summer we went through all the hurricane names and to the end of the Greek alphabet was more than "an occasional hurricane."
We don't really sit around worrying about getting a hurricane. I stock up some stuff at the beginning of the summer and generally take it out and use in in November.
The real fun starts when a wave comes off the coast of Africa.
How low on the equator is it? (The lower it is, the better chance it will hit us.)
Is it heading west or west-northwest? (Due west is bad news.)
Is the Bermuda High over the Atlantic? (If it is, the storm will go under it or slingshot around it into the North Atlantic. If the High is out of place, the storm goes wherever it wants. High pressure repels a s torm, low pressure draws it in.)
Is there an upper-level or lower-level windshear anywhere between it and us? (They can tear the thunderstorm tops apart and dissipate a hurricane.)
Is the water cold or hot? (Storms steer away from cold water and towards hot.)
Is it following in an earlier storm's footprint? (Hurricanes train, one in back of another one like they did to New Orleans a few years ago and to Texas.)
This goes on for at least a week. Then, it if holds together and stays on track for South Florida:
Is it going over the mountains in Cuba or Haiti or the Dominican Republic? (The mountains may tear it apart but even then the eye can reform over open water.)
How fast is it going? (Faster is better. Once we had a storm stall right over us for almost 24 hours. It tore half of Miami to pieces. I think it was Betsey or Donna or Cleo.)
Are we on the wet side or dry side? (Wet side= lots of rain and highest winds.)
How low is the pressure in the eye in millibars of mercury? (Wilma had the lowest recorder pressure in mbm in the history of tracking. The lower the pressure, the higher the winds go.)
How high are the sustained winds in the eye wall clouds? (Andrew blew the wind vane off the roof of the University of Miami NOAA building at close to 200 mph. That's sustained, not gusting.)
Is there a cold front coming down the state that might pick it up? (Cold fronts can either block a storm out entirely or carry it right over us.)
How big of a storm surge is it pushing? (A 20-foor wall of water being pushed by 150 mile an hour winds is a bitch if you live near the beach.)
What is the cone of probability? (Computer models sometimes project 5 or 6 different paths and not even the experts know what will happen. There are too many variables.)
Will there be a high or low tide when it makes landfall? (High tide makes the storm surge even worse.)
At this point, if you don't have awnings or shutters or plywood and supplies, you're screwed. People run around like a chicken with it's head cut off, trying to get scraps of wood to put over their windows. The store shelves are empty. There is no gas left to buy.
The day before a hurricane is the prettiest weather you've ever seen... the sky is a gentle blue, the sun shines, not a cloud in the sky.... and then you notice that there's not a bird anywhere and a steady wind from the east has started to blow. That's when you just go inside and wait it out and hope most of your house is still there when the storm passes. I remember when Andrew hit, a tree went through a bedroom window and we had to hold a mattress against it for 2 hours, so it wouldn't take the whole roof off.... and it blew part of the roof away anyway, along with my shed and toppeled a huge tree on the van and crushed it. I watched pieces of concrete break off a cement block wall, the awnings ripped off and flew away, and it sounded literally like a train was going through my back yard. It blew my brother's entire house away. He only found the AC unit and the American flag from my father's funeral. So that's the shit we go through every time anything forms in the Atlantic, because you never know what they're going to do.
You can't run around obbsessing but you can't get complacent. Complacent kills people.
If the storm hits, people say they weren't given enough warning. If it doesn't hit, they go on TV and swear it's a conspiracy between Publix and Home Depot. The TV weathercasters and NOAA go insane because they don't want to piss everybody off with a fals alarm, but they don't want to wait too late to call it if it's coming in. I remember watching Bob Soper on TV, Andrew making a beeline for the Dade-Broward county line, and he actually stood over the radar image of the storm and told everybody that the next day would be a good beach day. He said if he didn't do that, he could have lost his job for inciting a panic. Brian Norcross is the one who finally started yelling at people, telling them the storm was going to hit.... until the day before, everybody thought it was a joke and over reaction.
Incidentally did you know that the University of Miami's mascot is Salty the IBis? The ibis is the last bird to leave before a storm hits and the first to come back when it's gone.
Attachment: zoo 079.JPG (Downloaded 38 times) Last edited on Thu Aug 20th, 2009 07:40 am by Merlin
____________________
Be like a dog: if you can't eat it or hump it, piss on it and walk away.
|
yoki
Dialogue Facilitator
|
Posted: Thu Sep 17th, 2009 04:34 pm |
|
pollyanna03 wrote: I lovebuy the hills dvd. It is my favorite show(the hills dvd) and really the only thing(the hills series) I watch regularly. This show(the hills dvd for sale
) is just so awesome that I ratethe hills season 5 higher then a 10 and rate it 50 out of 10 I just love the hills seasons.There is no new show(the hills on dvd) more likable.
The Hills Seasons 1-5 DVD Boxset worth to watch.you are welcome to visit
dvdcollectionsale.
the hills dvddvdcollection sale
And I love to ban spammers, just wish I could in your case.
____________________
____________________
When shit happens, God doesn't give one.
|
buygenericviagraonline4cheaper
Belvedere
| Joined: | Wed Jan 21st, 2009 |
| Location: | |
| Posts: | 4 |
| Status: |
Offline
|
| Mana: | |
|
Posted: Fri Sep 18th, 2009 07:00 am |
|
Ain't it the truth. Ain't it the truth.
|
yoki
Dialogue Facilitator
|
Posted: Fri Sep 18th, 2009 04:16 pm |
|
buygenericviagraonline4cheaper wrote: Ain't it the truth. Ain't it the truth.
Ahhh I forgot about you. I would never ban you... funny spammers can always stay.
____________________
____________________
When shit happens, God doesn't give one.
|
Current time is 05:09 pm | |
|
